Your Daily Climate Change Briefing

Extreme Heat Grips Northern Hemisphere Amid Warnings of 'Super El Niño' and Ocean Current Instability

• The Northern Hemisphere is experiencing widespread extreme heat, with the UK recording temperatures exceeding 40°C in Summer 2026, a level deemed extremely unlikely without human activity. Similarly, a late June-early July heatwave in eastern North America exposed approximately 50 million people and $3.3 trillion USD of economic activity to conditions up to 2.5°C warmer than in the past, leading to dozens of heat-related emergencies and multiple deaths. Western Europe also endured its hottest June on record, with Public Health France doubling its preliminary estimate of excess deaths from the late June heatwave to over 2,000.

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• The UN World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has raised its forecast for the rapid emergence of a strong El Niño, warning it is likely to drive global temperatures even higher. Scientists are cautioning that a "super El Niño," characterized by sea surface temperatures at least 2°C above average, could unleash widespread disruption and set the stage for record global heat, layering its effects on top of existing climate crisis impacts.

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• A new study indicates a greater than 10% probability that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) collapse is already committed, irrespective of future mitigation efforts, with this probability increasing sharply under continued emissions. Such a shutdown would trigger catastrophic global climatic changes, including a dramatic sea-level rise along the U.S. East Coast and potential temperature drops of 5-15°C in northern Europe.

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• In a significant policy shift, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has proposed rescinding its 2024 climate disclosure rules, which would have mandated detailed climate risk and emissions disclosures. This move would revert the agency to a less prescriptive disclosure framework, though companies would still be obligated to disclose material climate-related risks under existing securities laws.

  GizmodoNatlawreview