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U.S. Renewable Capacity Nears Natural Gas Dominance Amidst New State and Federal Policy Shifts
U.S. renewable energy capacity is approaching that of natural gas in the generation mix, reflecting rapid scaling of solar, wind, and storage, though this shift does not yet equate to equal electricity supply. This development underscores the increasing importance of transmission, balancing, and market design to integrate variable output into the grid.
Delaware Governor Matt Meyer signed legislation on August 26, 2026, requiring large energy users, such as data centers, to fund their own infrastructure costs and supply 100% of their power, including a share of clean energy, to protect the public grid and consumers from rising utility rates. Concurrently, the New Jersey Economic Development Authority updated its Take Charge and NJ Cool programs on August 26, 2026, to boost funding for solar and energy storage, aligning with Governor Mikie Sherrill's agenda to reduce energy costs for businesses.
Federally, the EPA finalized the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) "Set 2" rule on March 27, 2026, establishing record-high renewable fuel volume requirements for 2026 and 2027 to increase American biofuel use. However, the Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC) projects that broader Trump administration energy policies, including potential rollbacks of tax credits and new tariffs, could lead to a loss of 390 GW to 540 GW of new wind, solar, and energy storage capacity over the next decade, potentially increasing power costs.
The Bottom Line
Recent policy actions at both state and federal levels are shaping the future of renewable energy, with some policies driving expansion and consumer protection, while others, like Mexico's new storage requirement or projected federal policy shifts, could introduce significant headwinds for capacity growth and project economics.
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