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Today's Briefing
Monday, Apr 13, 2026

Permanent Scars and Financial Crisis Risk Emerge Amid Iran War and IMF/World Bank Meetings

  • The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank Spring Meetings (April 13-17, 2026) are addressing the Iran war's economic fallout. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva warned the conflict will "permanently scar" the global economy, necessitating growth downgrades. The IMF's World Economic Outlook is due April 14.

  • A significant new risk emerged as Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey cautioned the Iran war could trigger a 2008-style financial crisis from a $3 trillion private credit market meltdown. The International Energy Agency (IEA) also called the conflict's energy impact the "greatest global energy security challenge in history," with Brent crude prices surging past $120 per barrel.

  • Elevated oil prices are driving resurfacing inflationary pressures, prompting RBC to upgrade headline inflation forecasts for Canada and the U.S. Despite this, central banks are holding interest rates steady, adopting a patient stance while monitoring inflation expectations.

The Bottom Line

The Iran war's profound and lasting impacts on energy markets and financial stability are taking center stage for international policymakers, pushing the global economy to a critical juncture.

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