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Real Estate Markets Signal Emerging Stability Amidst Shifting Dynamics
The commercial real estate (CRE) sector is showing signs of a turnaround, with Bank of America's 2026 Specialty Asset Management Outlook, released May 21, indicating that CRE is "turning the corner" after a significant interest-rate driven reset. Vacancies have largely peaked, new forward supply is muted, and negative appreciation returns are fading as transaction activity increases.
A notable development in commercial real estate is the increasing trend of owner-user acquisitions, particularly in Southern California. Businesses are opting to purchase properties rather than lease, a shift seen as a strong signal of market stabilization and returning confidence, with companies like State Compensation Insurance Fund acquiring significant office space.
The residential housing market is exhibiting a credible signal of returning homebuyer demand, with contract signings and new listings reaching their highest levels since 2022. Contract signings were up 4.5% year-over-year in April, particularly in metros where sellers are pricing homes realistically from the outset. Mortgage rates remain volatile, with the 30-year fixed refinance rate rising to 6.74% on May 24, following a slight dip to 6.34% on May 23.
The Bottom Line
Both commercial and residential real estate markets are navigating a complex environment, with commercial properties showing signs of recovery driven by owner-user confidence, while residential demand is cautiously re-emerging despite fluctuating mortgage rates.
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