Your Daily US Economy Briefing

CEO Confidence Plummets Amid Darkening Outlook, While Markets Rally to New Highs

• CEO confidence experienced a sharp reversal in Q2 2026, with The Conference Board Measure falling to 47 from 59 in Q1, indicating a negative outlook. A significant 47% of CEOs now believe the economy is worse than six months ago, up from 8% in the previous quarter, and 40% anticipate further weakening over the next six months. This pessimism is translating into workforce plans, with 31% of CEOs expecting to reduce their workforce in the coming six months.

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• Despite the cautious corporate sentiment, major US stock indexes reached new records on June 1st, driven by continued AI optimism and a spike in oil prices. The S&P 500 closed at 7,599.96, and the Nasdaq composite surpassed 27,000 for the first time, extending a nine-week winning streak for both indexes. This market buoyancy occurred even as oil prices rose more than 4% following renewed fighting that threatened the US-Iran ceasefire.

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• The labor market remains a key focus, with upcoming May data including the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) on June 2nd, expected to show stagnant job postings at 6.87 million. The ADP Non-Farm Employment Change is anticipated to report 110,000 jobs added, while the Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Report later this week is projected to show 95,000 new jobs and an unemployment rate of 4.3%. This comes as nonfarm payroll growth has shown little gain over the last 12 months, with most increases concentrated in healthcare and construction.

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• In a somewhat counterintuitive development amidst broader economic concerns, US construction spending rose 0.4% month-over-month in April 2026, marking its second consecutive increase and exceeding expectations. Both private and public spending contributed to this rise, with single-family housing up 1.4%.

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